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• Lessons
  • 1. Review of PRA and Introduction to Risk Assessment
  • 2. Resources Used to Conduct Pest Risk Assessment
  • 3. Conducting Pest Risk Assessment for Trade
  • 4. Practice
  • 5. Module Conclusion
• Topics
  • 1. Initiation
  • 2. Pest Categorization
  • 3. Estimating Likelihood of Introduction
  • 4. Estimating Potential Consequences of Introduction
  • 5. Developing Conclusions and Describing Uncertainty
  • 6. Lesson Summary
• Resources
  • Help
  • Glossary
  • Documents and Videos
  • Acknowledgements

Lesson 3: Conducting Pest Risk Assessment for Trade

Topic 6: Lesson Summary

Pest risk analysis follows the same basic steps whether it is addressing organisms, pathways, or commodities. The process begins with initiation, where we identify organisms and pathways that may be considered for pest risk assessment in relation to the identified PRA area. In this stage, we also describe the scope and purpose of the PRA. The next stage after initiation is pest risk assessment. This stage includes pest categorization, assessing likelihood, and estimating consequences of pest introduction. The third, final stage of PRA is pest risk management.

In assessing likelihood of introduction and spread, we assess the likelihood that the pest will be associated with pathways that could lead to introduction, survive existing pest management procedures, remain with the pathway at origin, escape detection, survive transit or movement to the PRA area, find a favorable location and suitable host material in the PRA area, and be able to reproduce and spread.

Estimating pest consequences includes direct and indirect consequences and both market and nonmarket effects. The magnitude of consequences is dependent on both the time horizon for the PRA and the ability of the pest to spread. A range of methods is used to estimate consequences; the method selected depends on the availability of information and the specific application of the PRA. In all cases—for likelihood of introduction and spread, as well as estimating consequences—assumptions and uncertainty should be clearly described.

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